Impact on Election 2010

As Election 2010 draws near it is instructive to look at some of the variables that should come in to play.

Libertarian View

Politico recently had an article that is interesting in that it looks at the impact libertarians are having on the electorate. Independent voters have swung recent elections in Massachusetts, Virginia, and New Jersey and are expected to play a crucial role in the November 2010 election. Many independent-minded voters (libertarians) have typically voted Republican. But, any loyalty they showed to the party was taxed greatly by a dramatic increase in spending during the Bush years.

In 2008 57% of Massachusetts independents voted for Obama. Just 14 months later they swung to 65% in favor of Scott Brown in the special senatorial election. Though Brown is no libertarian, his message against health care reform and tax increases resonated with them, while playing down social issues. This strategy also worked for Bob McDonnell in the Virginia Governor’s race. McConnell appealed to libertarians by emphasizing fiscal issues and playing down social issues.

There are probably many independent voters who are not classified as libertarians because most pollsters don’t include that as an option. Many libertarians are forced into conservative, independent, or moderate classifications. Many ‘tea-partiers’ views are aligned with libertarians. And, with all the ‘tea-party’ rallies over the last year, these voters appear to be on verge of significantly impacting elections well into the future.

Culture of Dependence

Progressives see society in way where people cannot handle their lives by themselves and where the government must supplement their incomes, health, education, etc. They believe that the government must control markets to level the playing field. They want to create a culture of dependence where the elite make ‘better’ decisions for the masses.

In a recent article by Michael Barone this culture of dependence and the reaction by the 'tea partiers' is examined. Tea partiers see the things differently. They recognize that democrats are trying to permanently enlarge government and increase our dependence upon it. They believe that this will destroy the culture of independence that our founders created.  Barone notes that in 2008 the president won the election with the support of the elite class, as well as, those that have already become dependent upon the government.

In between those two types are the people of the culture of independence. Tea party supporters are not looking for handouts, and they have a longer timer horizon. They reject handouts and completely understand where the Obama democrats are trying to take the country. Polling suggests that that most Americans don’t want to go in that direction. They believe in original intent of founders: a culture of fiscal and moral independence. This will have an impact on the November 2010 elections.

Lack of Trust

Americans don’t trust their federal government. The Pew Research Center survey shows that almost 8 of 10 Americans don’t trust the federal government and do not believe that it can solve America’s problems. This lack of trust corresponds directly to their belief of a failing government. With each passing day citizens are less likely to believe that the government has the solutions. This is an important election issue for this fall and it should translate into massive turnover in the US House and Senate.

In the past poor performance by the federal government was the most persistent criticism. But, increasingly Americans believe that the federal government has the wrong priorities. Not only that there is growing concern about its size and power. This is particularly evident since the current administration took office in January 2009. In four surveys over the past year half say they would rather have smaller government with fewer services, while 40% prefer bigger government providing more services.

Discontent with our elected officials has destroyed our trust in the federal government. Public opinion of congress and other elected officials is at an all time low. The impact on the upcoming elections should be great as there will be incentive for many to remove their representative from office.

Motivation

Motivated people show up to vote in larger numbers than those that aren’t. In 2008 the voters most motivated clearly wanted to put the Bush years behind them. Additionally, certain segments of the population supported the current president in large numbers (young people, minorities, and high-income earners). This played crucial role in that election.

Now, the tides have turned because the current administration and congress have turned up the growth of the federal government to unprecedented proportions. The motivation of the electorate is now on the side of conservatives, libertarians, and independents who want smaller and less costly government. The current administration has inflamed this portion of the electorate by forcing unpopular legislation upon the country, while mocking their concerns.

This motivation should produce a significant reversal of what happened in 2006 and 2008, as conservatives, libertarians, and independents vote in significant numbers.

Political Map

Some democrats see the 'writing on the wall' and have decided not to run for re-election. These include such high profile lawmakers like Evan Bayh of Indiana and Chris Dodd of Connecticut. But an overall map of who is on the senate ballot for 2010 shows that there are 18 democrats and 18 republicans up for re-election in 2010, while all house seats are up for re-election in 2010.

Yet, a closer look at who is in trouble and who is not clearly shows that the democrats should see significant reductions in numbers. Real Clear Politics tracks all the races around the country and the trend is toward electing a more conservative government. This trend is probably mostly due to the items previously discussed. Another reason is that many of the well known democrats do not want to deal with what will certainly be a toxic re-election environment for them. And because of the currently political climate, this will allow conservative candidates to thrive in locations thatthey may not have under different circumstances.

Unfortunately, the executive branch holds significant powers and the current crop of legislators are ceding their power to the president almost on a daily basis. By the time the next congress is seated, their may not be any Article 1 powers that the congress holds any longer!